Bonus EV (basic)

How to audit a casino bonus in 5 steps

An Expected Value (EV) calculation shows the average dollar amount you stand to keep after clearing all wagering requirements. Before you deposit, pull these values from the promotion’s terms and conditions sheet:

1. Deposit: The amount of cash you plan to transfer.
2. Bonus %: The match rate offered (e.g., a 100% match on a $100 deposit gives you a $100 bonus).
3. Wagering Multiple (×): The rollover requirement (e.g., 30x, 35x, or 40x).
4. Wager Applied To: Check if the rollover multiple applies only to the **Bonus only**, or to the combined **Deposit + Bonus** sum. This single detail doubles your total clearing requirement.
5. Game House Edge (%): The mathematical edge of the game you plan to play while clearing the requirements (e.g., 1.0% for blackjack or 2.5% for European roulette).

The math: How Expected Value (EV) is calculated

I used to think all casino bonuses were free money. Then I got burned trying to clear a 40x rollover on a combined deposit + bonus on slot machines, watching my entire balance dissolve before hit index 30.

Here is the exact math to determine whether a bonus has a positive expected value (+EV) or a negative expected value (-EV).

1. Calculating the total wagering target

The verifier first determines the exact dollar amount of bets you must place before you can withdraw your funds.

If the wagering applies to the **Bonus Only**:

Wager Target = Bonus_Value * Wagering_Multiple

If the wagering applies to **Deposit + Bonus**:

Wager Target = (Deposit_Value + Bonus_Value) * Wagering_Multiple

2. Calculating the expected cost of clearing

Every bet you make is subject to the game’s house edge. The expected cost of clearing your bonus is the total volume of bets multiplied by the house edge:

Expected Cost = Wager Target * (House_Edge_Percent / 100)

For example, wagering $3,500 on a game with a 1.0% house edge carries an expected loss cost of exactly $35.

3. The final EV formula

To find the final expected value, subtract the expected clearing cost from your raw bonus value:

EV = Bonus_Value - Expected Cost

If the result is positive, the bonus is mathematically **+EV**. You hold the advantage over the casino. If the result is negative, clearing the bonus will cost you more than the bonus is worth (**-EV**), and you should skip the offer.

Strategy: How to clear wagering safely

• Always check game weightings: Low house edge games (like blackjack or baccarat) are often heavily restricted. A casino might state that blackjack only contributes 10% toward wagering. This effectively multiplies your rollover target by 10x! Check the promotion details carefully.
• Prefer cashable bonuses over “sticky” ones: A cashable bonus lets you withdraw the remaining bonus funds once wagering is met. A sticky bonus (also called phantom) allows you to play with the funds, but the bonus amount itself is removed from your balance upon withdrawal.
• Wagering speed matters: Ensure you have enough time to clear the rollover. A $10,000 wagering target cleared at $2 per spin requires 5,000 spins. Ensure the promotion doesn’t expire before you can finish.

Frequently asked questions