If you play a game with a negative expected value long enough, going broke is not an “if,” but a “when” (our guide to the mathematics of Risk of Ruin explains why this boundary is absorbing). This Time to Ruin Calculator uses Monte Carlo simulation to estimate your survival lifespan, showing the median and range of hours your bankroll will last (use our general Bankroll Calculator to check your starting unit bounds).
Standard risk models calculate your Risk of Ruin—the overall probability that you will eventually go broke. However, for casual players and recreational gamblers, this is only half the puzzle. If you know you have a 100% chance of eventually losing your bankroll, your primary concern is: **how long can I play before that happens?**
By modeling your bankroll as a random walk with an absorbing barrier at zero, this tool simulates thousands of gaming sessions to plot the exact probability distribution of your survival time. It reveals how many hands, spins, or hours you can expect to enjoy your capital before hitting zero.
Because your bankroll’s path is path-dependent, solving for the exact distribution of survival time analytically is extremely complex. This tool uses a Monte Carlo simulation engine to track your bankroll until it hits zero:
For each simulated session, the engine begins at $B$ (your starting bankroll) and adds random outcomes until your balance hits zero:
Bankroll_t = Bankroll_{t-1} + Outcome_t
Stop when Bankroll_t ≤ 0The step count at termination is recorded as the session’s “Time to Ruin” ($T_{ruin}$).
The resulting dataset of survival times is highly right-skewed. A small number of sessions will hit massive hot streaks and last for tens of thousands of rounds, pulling the average (mean) upward, while most sessions end quickly. To get an accurate picture, we analyze:
Let’s audit a $500 starting bankroll, betting $5 per round at 200 rounds per hour:
This demonstrates the massive difference. On the slot, you have a high probability of going broke in under an hour, whereas blackjack’s low house edge and low volatility almost guarantee you multiple sessions of entertainment.
Because the distribution of survival times has a long right-tail. A few lucky simulations will hit huge winning streaks and last for millions of rounds, which distorts the “mean” (average) upward, making it look like you will play longer than you actually will. The median represents the true middle ground.
You can extend your survival by choosing games with a lower house edge, decreasing your bet size relative to your bankroll, slowing down your rate of play, or selecting low-volatility games that prevent massive, sudden drops.
In probability models, an absorbing barrier is a state that, once entered, cannot be left. In gambling, your bankroll at zero is the ultimate absorbing barrier: you cannot place any more wagers, meaning the session is permanently terminated.